Romney's Chances

"I hope conservatives (especially in Missouri) who are considering voting for Huckabee on 2/5 really think this through. McCain isn't the choice of a true conservative."

I think conservatism has lost out to biggotry over religion. Huckabee's ONLY reason for staying in the race is to defeat what he believes is a greater evil than liberalism: Mormonism.

I have been wondering about the likely ultimate results.

But Romney is not a "true conservative" either. He is merely a place holder for the hopes and dreams of self-proclaimed "true conservatives" who comprise a minor part of the Republican party. The hope is that he will at least toe the line, unlike McCain.

Romney was to the left on social issues up until he was thinking about running for president. I think Romney could make a fine president, but nothing to be enamored with.

I personally like McCain because it is clear where he stands on all the issues and refuses to throw red meat to the "true conservatives" just to be elected. His focus is on policy, not politics.

(at least here in Texas) is that a democrat in the whitehouse would do more to return the GOP to conservatism than would a "President McCain."

Some are saying they will actually vote for Hillary to help bring this to pass, while others are saying they simply won't vote in November. Either way - McCain probably won't win in November (regardless of what head-to-head polls are showing right now.

Romney hasn't always been what I would call a "true conservative" but he has always kept campaign promises...and what he is promising now is true conservatism at its finest. That's good enough for me.

Mitt certainly has my vote...McCain doesn't (now nor in November.)

didn't realize he was duped into campaigning for John McCain.

it's backwards, Romney is at 53% McCain at 38%

I think he copied and pasted wrong on these two since the table has McCain ahead but in the polls (from elsewhere) Romney is.

I think McCain and Romney are turned around in some of the races, for instance Massachusetts. It is Romney that has the 57% not McCain.

is a vote for La Raza.

Thanks for your chart, but I noticed a couple minor problems that might make Romney's path a little easier.

(1) The Massachusetts poll results have it 57-34 McCain when it should be 57-34 Romney. That moves 10 delegates from McCain to Romney.

(2) The 45-35-20 assumption is probably not appropriate for Arkansas, Huckabee's home state, or Colorado, where Romney leads in the latest poll 43-24.

Chris

Doesn't he just need to stop McCain from getting the magic number?

I believe that New Jersey is winner-take-all. Correct?

Quite a few of you numbers don't add up. For instance, Louisiana 19 + 36 = 55, but the delegate column says LA should have 47. Same situation for Washington, Kansas, Wisconsin, and others.

Huckabee has been first or second in every poll I've seen for Oklahoma. Where did your poll come from?

Romney's actual positions he took as governor to protect traditional marriage and veto stem cell reserach are more conservative than McAmnesty's positions. McAmnesty will stab us in the back.
It is obvious that a vote fo Huckleberry is a votre for McCain - very literally. Republicans need to wake up and vote for Mitt.
I think California Republicans have already figured it out. a big surge for Mitt right now!
Go Mitt

I think he made some political compromises to get elected as MA gov. and he lived by them, but outside of that he was solid.

Example: Abortion - agreed to leave status quo position alone in campaign and did so. (Not like he could reverse RvW and a super majority democratic legislature anyways). But even though he lived up to this position he was able to veto the state funding of embryonic research. (Some say he claimed to support such research - I do not think he'd make it illegal fwiw - I think his position is the government shouldn't be involved either way.)

Anyways - without a couple major upsets on Super Tuesday he'll be in a tough position. I don't think Huckabee just gets to give his delegates away, I believe (if they are pledged) they are required to vote for Huckabee on the first convention vote. So if McCain had 1000, Romney had 900, and Huck had 300, it would go to a second vote. However there are likely to be enoug unpledged delegates that will simply go for the leading candidate on the first ballot: 1. it will be seen as the right thing to do for the party. 2. it will help them win favors.

For example Romney "won" Maine, but theoretically the delegates could go McCain on the first round, since the delegates are unpleged, in order to gain favor with McCain (and possible in return for some favor, like picking a Senator from ME who delivers the state's candidates for his cabinet.)

I am a Texan, and I know that Californias are intelligent Republicans. MITT ROMNEY displays the finest characteristics to become the President of the United States. I agree with Cal Lawyer, that Mitt will protect conservative ideas and positions. A vote for Huck is a vote for McCain, and a vote for McCain is a vote for Hillary. Mitt Romney showed true intelligence and well-informed rational answers in all of the Republican debates. Yet, Romney is criticized for being prosperous ( an American dream I thought), being overdressed, rich (which seems to be a sin according to the Liberal Media), a nerd, too intelligent, and some have said they can't understand his answers because he used "big words"....Give me a break....I suppose some people want a liar, or someone like McCain who just mumbles answers, then usually changes the subject and goes into his bragging mode. I do not think a HERO IS SOMEONE WHO LIES AND LIES TO HIS OWN CITIZENS WHO VOTED FOR HIM IN ARIZONA.
MITT ROMNEY is the only choice for Conservative Republicans throughout the U.S.A.
Please Conservatives do the right thing on Super Tuesday before it is too late...VOTE FOR MITT ROMNEY...

#1 you've given Mitt Romney 20 extra delegates, your math doesn't add up.

#2 Arkansas is a winner take all state, you have it proportional

#3 Delaware is a winner take all also.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/repu blican_delegate_count.html

found the extra 20, but #2 and #3 are right.

Wouldn't you just LOVE to relish the media's shock if there is a Maine-style conservative revolt, turning all the numbers on their heads?

It can be done.

Unite behind Mitt. Rally to Mitt.

SuperMitt for SuperTuesday!

He is a liberal by any definition of the word and he has consistantly been opposed to Conservative positions the last 8 years.... I won't go through the list as I am thinking that anyone who reads this knows it by heart.

What is flabergasting to me is that Romney has drawn the label of "flip-flopper" when it is clear that McCain has changed more positions in the last six weeks than Romney has in his political career. (i.e. make the tax cuts permanent, build the fence, repeal the death tax, "I don't understand the economy very well"... "I mean, I didn't say that"... "Alito wears his conservatism on his sleeve and I would not appoint such a Justice", I mean "I would appoint Justices after the likes of Roberts and Alito", etc, etc.)

Another thing, if we all can't see why Huck is still in the race then we could all be pronounced legally blind and perhaps stupid.... He is clearly running interference for his buddy McCain in hopes that if McCain wins the WhiteHouse that he will get a job....I don't think that Huck is naive enough to think that McCain would pick him to run on the ticket with him... The sad part of this whole thing is that Huck's followers would be much happier with the policies and the listening ear that Romney would give them in comparison to McCain...

Look again Arkansas is not a winner-take-all state but Delaware is. I personally think Romney is going to be a lot closer than the above numbers show and Huckabee will only wind up with about 120 delegates. If Romney wins big in California there will be a whole new dynamic (California is Winner-take-all per congressional district which could give Romney a substantial majority of California delegates. Furthermore, here in Colorado (which is a caucas state) Romney and Ron Paul are the only ones with grass roots efforts in play and Romney leads that effort by a large majority. I would be surprised if Romney didn't take all of Colorado's delegates (I plan on being one of those delegates). I am predicting less than a 150 delegate seperation between McCain and Romney at the end of tommorrow.

I'm from Missouri and Mitt can count on me against that RINO Democratic traitor John McShame and his ally Huckelberry!

How do you have to jigger these numbers to make up for significantly overestimating Romney's ST performance? There's no way Romney can take 37 delegates in Louisiana without taking more than 50% of the primary vote, and we've seen how likely that is given Mitt's lock on the Southern bronze medals.