Nebraska Goes Obama.

reflect the Sarah factor? In other words, are the state polling numbers current?

Nevertheless, you're work on this is appreciated. A thoughtful and reasoned analysis.

It's not the slam dunk that the McCainiacs think it is. I think there's a good possibility that because of McCain's amnesty stance he'll lose GA, VA, and TX. Game over.

Excellent point about the really important races, House races. That's where things get done.

Thanks for the comments.

Greg B, SD,

Yes, they are current. Colorado is still showing the possibility of going to Obama. And New Mexico also is still looking bad for McCain.

Sarah probably will not help New Mexico, and may not really help Colorado either. It is still polling better for Obama than McCain.

All the Obama leaning states Sarah probably will not help with. Maybe Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Michigan but probably not. These are democrat leaning states which have not shown much interest in McCain. And what we must remember is that Sarah Palin is just playing a supportive role only, it is McCain that people will ultimately be voting for or not voting for.

Virginia Patriot,

Thanks for the comments. I think McCain is more likely to lose Georgia then even Virginia which he may well lose also. Georgia went for Clinton one election and just bearly went for Dole by like 2 points another time. Obama will get out the vote strong there and there is the Bob Barr factor to, being from Georgia.

I also agree completely on the house. They are all up every two years. Therefore they can be held very accountable and being that the entire house is up for election it could go our way if people would just give their support to them.

And to answer the earlier question, the data is good and current.

Here's a link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccai n/

According to the Electoral Map, as of tonight the breakdown is:

Obama - 217

McCain - 189

Toss up - 132

That reflects any "bounce". That means that McCain has to win about 2/3 of the remaining states to pull it off. Highly unlikely if the election were held right this minute. 56 of the electoral tossup votes are in Obama-leaning states, which would put him over the top.

Further, as time passes the "Palin Rush" is going to subside. How long will the kids stay entertained by the new Christmas toy?

Further, we haven't had the debates yet, and I think there's a real possibility that'll play strongly toward Obama.

Another aspect of the topic du jour up at my place.

Thanks for the comments.

I think that Obama may actually win all of the toss up states.

But probably atleast most of them.

As my blog here points out. If he wins the blue states I listed that are likely to go for him, then McCain can't afford to lose New Mexico, Colorado and that one electoral vote for Nebraska. Even if McCain somehow managed to win both Florida and Ohio he would still lose.

And I don't think he'll win Ohio. Wasn't Ohio one of the states that was having republican problems, and lost in 2006 because of it?

I don't know, but it is clear that McCain is at the disadvantage and Obama is at the strong advantage.

TNcon, for congress? I got to vote for Jimmy Duncan here in TN-2. I did NOT vote for Lamar Alexander. I wrote in myself.

The biggest problem I see is that conservatives don't get real conservatives on ballots.

Congressman Tanner.

From what I understand a liberal democrat, and also from what I understand I think he is running unopposed.

This is very unfortunate.

Yes, I don't think I like Lamar Alexander much either. Pretty much a McCainlite from what I have seen. Another liberal republican in the senate. The senate is full of them.

You are right about the ballots. The district leans democrat yet the people here are mostly very conservative. People haven't yet woke up to the fact that democrats are mostly liberals and you must check their record to see.

What I really don't understand is how TN could be a given for McCain or whatever republican and not have complete conservative control across the board.

How is it that Louisiana is a given for McCain, yet they can't get rid of a liberal democrat senator? I don't get it.