Full Circle in Iran

Someone with the rhetorical skills of Obama should be able to spit something out other than the incoherency of what he has. The U.S. ALWAYS has been a strong supporter of democratic moves away from tyranny and oppression,why the timidity NOW,simply because it's an Islamic theocracy? He don't want to anger those he apparently agrees with? Golden opportunity here,too bad it seems as if he's willing to let it go for naught.

Though I fully agree with your characterization of Bat Ears's incompetence, let's not make this situation in Iran out as more than it is.

Mousavi may not be as bad as Ahmadinnerjacket, but neither is he some enlightened pro-Western Iranian version of Jefferson.

I'm put on mind of how excited everyone was when the Palestinian Authority for the first time held open, free, and internationally-monitored elections. The result? Hamas won.

Never forget what we're talking about: the ME, and Iran.

clyde, I don't believe that Obama supports the regime per se. What I think his problem here is that he is even more stubborn than GWB was made out to be. He has decided that he is going to negotiate with the regime about nukes and the like, and he desires stability since his path has already been staked out. The uprising is throwing that plan into doubt, and I don't think he and his team want to rework the plan they have in place. They are good at speeches and setting out what they want to happen in the long term, but they are not adept at adjusting on the fly.

Brian, I think that this is well beyond Mousavi at this point. People who pay attention understand that the Mousavi was there at the beginning of the Revolution, played a large part in starting the Iranian pursuit of nuclear power/weapons, and was all for the Revolution as he served as PM in the 1980s. Mousavi is more like Gorbachev than Boris Yeltsin, in that he wants to try to reform the current system instead of replacing it. But much like Gorbachev, Mousavi can be the jumping off point for serious institutional change in Iran and the Iranian youth know it. He is simply a convenient symbol to be used by protestors to show their fervent desire for freedom. And if the mullahs buckle here and have to install Mousavi, the present system is doomed. The Iranian youth are not the Palestenians; they are better educated and more in tune with the world outside of Iran's borders. And they have no emotional connection to the 1979 revolution, so they are not likely to put in place anything that resembles the repessive regime they have always known, if they have the chance to do so. Here's hoping that they do.

your assessment of the nature of the Iranian students, and in fact that also applies to major segments of the population. There's always been quite a segment that's very pro-American, surprisingly enough, though you'd never know it from the news coverage.

That being said, there's ALSO a VERY large segment that's quite fundamentalist. That can't be overemphasized.

They still march down the street during Ramadan, self-flagellating. They still turn to the clerics to tell them how to run their lives. The muezzins are still calling prayers five times a day (sounding like dispeptic seagulls as they do so).

When you talk about the students, you're discussing people who are MUCH better educated than the average Iranian. I'm sure the situation's improved since I was there, but definitely not to Western standards.

The power of the clerics lies in controlling that, and they're pretty harsh about it.

I guess to really clarify what I'm saying: I don't think the outcome of this election will have much impact on us one way or the other. That's my bottom line.

As far as I can see, Mousavi's no better than Ahmadinnerjacket.

Stubborn. Something I had not considered when thinking of Obama and his grandiose schemes. His narcissism is what usually comes to my mind.

Like I said before, I think it has moved beyond the person of Mousavi and he is just a vessel for the young people to pour their support into. He is along for the ride here; his candidacy was just the impetus for the students and other young people to finally take their stand against the mullahs. There is no call from conservatives here to support Mousavi, just to support the students in their calls for freedom from the theocracy that is suffocating them. Mousavi is not the final answer, but he is a starting point.

And while I have never been to Iran, in all of the research I have done of the nation, it becomes obvious that the people do not share the antagonism towards us that the regime does. The question (should the mullahs fall) will also be what is the place of Islam in the future of Iran; whether there will be a more secular society established there. That will be interesting to see...if the regime does tumble.

That was also part of what I was trying to convey. When you talk about "the people", you have to realize there are several subsects, not one homogeneous group.

The students would be educated, many are pro-Western (they want their jeans and MTV), less fundamentalist. HOWEVER, don't forget that the Revolutionary Guard came from the student class in 1979.

The peasants, uneducated, VERY controlled by the clerics. This is a LARGE group. They're urban dwellers as well as rural dwellers.

Merchant class. Timid; much at risk. Try to remain neutral. At the mercy of the political class.

I could go into more, but I think you get the idea. I'm not all that optimistic about Iran turning into an enlightened country any time soon.

I get you...they're a lot like us in their internal divisions. Lots of groups with lots of different concerns, coming from lots of different points of view. Like you, I don't have a good sense of where this is going, but I do know that without some international condemnation and repercussions for the regime for attacking its own citizens, it could get very bad for the protestors very quickly. Because unlike the Shah, this regime does not seem to be unwilling to crack down using whatever means it take to maintain their power.

That about sums it up in a nutshell.