I predict: Hillary takes Texas

Mike Gallagher

3/3/2008 7:08:04 PM - Mike Gallagher
I'm really a lousy prognosticator.  In fact, my track record suggests that I should really just keep my mouth shut, analyze election results and be satisfied to leave it at that.

I'm still in shock that my Dallas Cowboys didn't even make it to the Super Bowl, especially after my confident prediction that they would beat the Patriots in Arizona.  And then, while nursing my wounds, I declared, without hesitation, that New England would stomp the New York Giants.

Yeah, I'm not much of a fortune teller.  In sports OR politics.

But I just have this strong, strong hunch about the Texas primary.  And so I'm going to break my self-imposed (meaningless) rule and make a prediction:  Hillary Clinton will win the Texas primary by a whisker.

If I'm correct, I will frequently remind you of my political prowess and election-time genius.  If I'm wrong, I'll simply forget to mention it ever again.  As I said, my error-prone predictions would fill a sizable book.

But allow me to state my reasons:  first, a phenomenon known as crossover voting is happening in the Lone Star State.  When I went to early voting in a Tarrant County, Texas polling place last week, one of the poll workers told me that the Democrats were out-voting Republicans "better than two to one."  And he said that a whole bunch of Republicans were admitting to voting for Hillary in order to try and keep her in the race.

Secondly, there is great discontent in the Hispanic community with Sen. Obama.  As one Dallas-area Latina activist clumsily put it the other day, "Barack Obama has a problem of being Black."  She went on to explain that many Hispanic voters feel that black politicians have turned their back on the Hispanic community in years past.  And they are not forgetting it.

Combine these two conditions with the fairly rocky weekend that Obama had regarding his adviser's alleged comments to a Canadian official over  NAFTA and you might just have the formula for an upset victory (and let's face it, at this point in the Obama-mania hysteria, a Clinton win WOULD be an upset, right?).

Take it to the bank, it's Hillary by a Texas nose.  Feel free to congratulate me on Wednesday if I turn out to be right.

If I'm wrong, leave me alone.  We Republicans have enough headaches right now.