Recent polls produced confusing results in the presidential contest – with Barack Obama ahead over-all, but Mitt Romney leading comfortably among independents.
How could this be?—as independents are the key swing votes that settle closely divided elections? Actually, many polls over-sample Democrats—predicting they’ll turn out in record numbers, exceeding even the tidal wave for the hope-and-change campaign of 2008. Moreover, they also project conservative-leaning groups staying home: analysis of the Marist Poll in key swing states projected 20 to 30 percent lower white Evangelical participation than last time.
This flows from liberal assumptions that religious conservatives are disengaged from this election, and uncomfortable with Romney’s Mormon faith. This means that Evangelicals can shock the elites and tip the results by rallying at least as strongly for Romney-Ryan as they did for George W. Bush—or John McCain.