Though the president’s partisans portray him as a prohibitive favorite for re-election, recent polling tells a different story. An ABC/Washington Post survey shows 45% of voters saying they will “definitely not” vote for Obama’s re-election, with USA Today/Gallup showing 46% similarly committed to his defeat, while only 31% say they will “definitely vote for Obama.”
This means that the president can squeeze out a bare majority only if he sweeps an unlikely 82% of those who now say they “might consider voting for Obama.” Considering his less than overwhelming 2008 victory margin, if Obama loses the support of just 10% of those who voted for “hope and change” last time, he’ll lose. When 70% say the nation’s heading the wrong way, Republicans stand an excellent chance of persuading more than a few of these disappointed citizens that they made a mistake last time.
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