In the last few days, the Republican Primary in Michigan turned into a referendum on whether or not lost jobs (the Wolverine State suffers the nation’s highest unemployment rate at an alarming 7.5%) were coming back, or not. 

John McCain told the voters the jobs weren’t “coming back” and that government, and workers, had to plan to develop new jobs. 

Mitt Romney attacked McCain for his “pessimism” and insisted that somehow has business acumen (which most often involved cutting jobs rather than creating them, but never mind) would bring home the controversial lost jobs. 

In the end, Michiganders voted decisively for the candidate who told them he’d somehow return the vanished jobs to the suffering state. 

In other words, the public that’s been suffering a “One State Recession” (exacerbated, to be sure, by a truly dreadful Democratic governor) chose the candidate who told them what they wanted to hear, rather than what they needed to know. 

The results highlighted the weaknesses of the McCain campaign more than the strengths of Romney’s revival.   

The Senator from Arizona proudly delights in ticking people off, counting on the idea that even people who disagree with his positions will respond affirmatively to his “straight talk.” He’s sold himself to those of us who support him (sure, I’m proud to back McCain) as the anti-panderer. Romney, on the other-hand, with his gumby-like flexibility, looks like he’s running for Panderer-in-Chief. 

His promises to revive Michigan’s ailing economy never emphasized specific proposals but instead focused on his abilities as a spectacularly successful management consultant and turn-around artist: if I can save the Salt Lake Olympics, he seemed to suggest, I can somehow rescue the ailing auto industry (where my father, coincidentally, happened to serve as a legendarily effective executive). 

South Carolina may provide more fertile ground for McCain’s emphasis on character and integrity, with Huckabee offering a stiffer challenge to Romney’s claims on social conservatives than he managed to mount in Michigan. Any outcome is possible – with victories for Huckabee, McCain or Romney (with his Michigan momentum) all very real possibilities. This Saturday also features a little-publicized GOP confrontation in Nevada, where Romney long held the lead but recent polls show McCain overtaking and passing him, with Giuliani and Huckabee both in the Hunt. There’s no sure bet in the Nevada contest, nor in South Carolina, nor in Florida, where polling shows four candidates (McCain, Huckabee, Giuliani and Romney) in a virtual tie. 

If any candidate manages to sweep all three of the remaining primaries before Tsunamic Tuesday on February 5th he may carry the day in those delegate rich states and lock up the nomination. Certainly, a Romney Trifecta in South Carolina, Nevada and Florida, following his impressive win in Michigan, would make him a formidable front-runner.

The far more likely outcome, however, involves continued split decisions, with all primary winners falling below 40% of total voters (as they have so far) and a spirited battle continuing all the way to Minneapolis.