Matt Lewis
The race to be the GOP candidate on the 2010 Texas ballot for Governor looks to be becoming less of a horse race than anticipated as incumbent Rick Perry now has a second independent poll putting him ahead by 12 points.

Last month, the Texas Lyceum poll had Governor Perry ahead of Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson 33 percent to 21 percent -- and this new poll puts him ahead by those same 12 points, 38 to 26.

Shortly after the Texas Lyceum poll came out, the KBH campaign said "to the extent this poll shows anything, it's that two-thirds of Texans don't want Rick Perry for yet another four years. His 39 percent support from 2006 is deteriorating."

However, this new UT poll shows Governor Perry at 38 percent with nearly eight months to go before the March 2nd primary…this on the heels of raising $450 thousand dollars on line in just nine days and more than $4.2 million after the end of the session (Perry was unable to raise money while the Legislature was in Austin)

The Perry camp is clearly enthusiastic, based on this blog posting:
 “In classical mechanics, momentum is defined as mass multiplied by velocity. In political campaigns, momentum could be defined as the past few weeks for the Texans for Rick Perry campaign.”
No word yet from the KBH team on how much money she has raised without the same limitations imposed on Rick Perry. But if you are in the Kay camp today, you have to be troubled by two independent polls, one confirming the other, showing you are trailing by 12 points early in the race. Rick Perry's traveling the state for July 4th Tea Parties had many wondering where Senator Hutchinson was -- a void which many conservatives believe is now showing in these early polls.

UPDATE: Analysis from the liberal leaning Paul Burka
“I find Perry’s lead to be quite believable. Hutchison is running the worst campaign imaginable. She has essentially abandoned the field to Perry. She has been invisible….I think her team is not first-rate talent, and I think they are letting her do what she wants to do instead of telling her what she needs to do…What we have seen is voters defecting from being for Hutchison to being undecided. Hutchison has a long way to go before she is an effective candidate. I keep hearing stories like the one out of the Dallas area, where legislators who attended a meet and greet with Hutchison were appalled at her lack of knowledge of state issues….It’s eight months until the election, but she has wasted the last eight months (except for fundraising), and she still doesn’t have anything that resembles a message.“


Matt Lewis

Matt Lewis is conservative writer and blogger based in Alexandria, VA.

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