Zogby: Obama Losing Support

Matt Lewis
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Posted: Aug 05, 2008 8:41 AM
Yesterday, I noted that Rasmussen had McCain up by one point.  Today, Zogby confirms.  Granted, I don't think national polls matter -- and it's really "likely" voters -- not "registered" voters -- that we should be worrying about, in my estimation.  I'm also not a big fan of Zogy's polling.  Still, it's a good sign that McCain is narrowly winning multiple polls, especially considering it is on the heels of Obama's trip abroad.  As David Brooks asks today:  Where's the landslide?

While the horse race aspect of a campaign is fun to talk about, it's not the head-to-head numbers that really tell us the most about the state of a race.  No doubt, the most interesting -- and telling -- thing to note from the new Zogy poll is that Obama seems to be losing support among what should be his strongest supporters:
- McCain gained 20% and Obama lost 16% among voters ages 18-29. Obama still leads that group, 49%-38%.

- Among women, McCain closed 10 points on Obama, who still leads by a 43%-38% margin.

- Obama has lost what was an 11% lead among Independents. He and McCain are now tied.

- Obama had some slippage among Democrats, dropping from 83% to 74%.

- Obama’s support among single voters dropped by 19%, and he now leads McCain, 51%-37%.

- Even with African-Americans and Hispanics, Obama shows smaller margins.