Ames Straw Poll Predictions
8/10/2007 4:04:44 PM - Matt Lewis
Will Romney win big? Will Alan Keyes' supporters mess things up? How 'bout Ron Paul?
Here are my predictions ...
1. Mitt Romney - He will win convincingly
2. Sam Brownback - He's been working it hard.
3. Ron Paul - This is the wild card.
4. Mike Huckabee - Why fourth? Had he built an organization, he would be dangerous. Also, The Club for Growth has been attacking him in commercials. (One top Democrat operative tells me I'm selling him short...that he's run a very quiet but effective campaign).
5. Tommy Thompson - He went to all 99 counties.
6. Tom Tancredo
*** McCain, Giuliani, Newt, and Fred Thompson will come in last. Why do I think this? My theory is that name ID doesn't matter in a contest like this. You see, nobody just goes to Ames on a hot day, for fun. It's not a state fair. People who go there are going there to cast a ballot.
Of course, it's hard to look at history to predict what will happen. It has never happened before that so many of the top candidates have opted out of the Straw Poll.
So what do you