Zogby:  Obama 49.9%-45.1% (4.8% spread between the candidates and 4.9% undecided) 

If you throw in the margin-of-error of 2.9%, the race according to Zogby essentially hasn't changed in three weeks -- Obama consistently polls between 47% and 52%, McCain between 40% and 45%. 

At least 5% to 9% undecided in every poll.

Of particular note in the Zogby poll is that 19% of self-described conservatives chose Obama in the poll.

Too many variables for a prediction to be anything more than a guess...