reports that 48% of registered voters are Republicans and 44% are Dems. Peter Roff
says that's the result of independents swinging rightwards:
Independents were an important part of the Obama coalition, responding favorably to his calls for change and his promise to bring a post-partisan, problem-solving agenda with him to the presidency. The fact that Congress is in a state of perpetual gridlock despite near-historic majorities for the president's party in both the House and Senate undermines his ability to cast himself as a problem-solver.
That's in sharp contrast to Larry Sabato's analysis
, who maintains that there are two groups of independents who come out if they are really motivated for the R's or the D's -- but they don't come out for both.