Guy Benson
Fresh off the presses:

WV Sen: Raese (R) 48 - Manchin (D) 46

This poll was conducted before Gov. Manchin's flip flop on Obamacare, which he suddenly says he opposes based on "new" information.  We'll see if voters view this move as a cynical ploy or if they reward Manchin for breaking with the president, who is extremely unpopular in the state.

KY Sen: Paul (R) 50 - Conway (D) 43

Jack Conway's egregious "Aqua Buddha" ad missed its mark:  Rand Paul has expanded his lead, and voters were turned off by the unserious attack.

OH Gov: Kasich (R) 47 - Strickland (D) 43

This race stubbornly remains a thorn in the RGA's side.  Although the state's US Senate race has become a laugher for Republican Rob Portman, Kasich hasn't managed to put his Democratic opponent away.  If political winds were blowing in the opposite direction, or were even dormant, the GOP might be a tad more nervous about this one.

IL Sen: Kirk (R) 43 - Giannoulias (D) 41

Another poll, another perilously thin lead for Mark Kirk.  Giannoulias' unfavorability rating stands at 52 percent, which is worrisome for Democrats.  The latest Chicago Tribune poll also shows a slim advantage for Kirk.  Its internals spell trouble for Alexi Giannoulias, with Kirk pulling away among independents and in Chicago's suburban "collar counties."  One X factor: Will any of the 7 percent of voters who've consistently claimed they're supporting the Green Party candidate defect to Giannoulias at the last minute?

IL Gov: Brady (R) 44 - Quinn (D) 39

Brady's lead has been cut in half since Fox's last survey, but it's still outside the margin of error.  Fun fact: Scott Lee Cohen, who was pressured into abnegating his Lt. Governor slot on the Democratic ballot after pulling a knife on his prostitute girlfriend, decided to jump into the Governor's race as an independent.  He's polling at 6 percent (!), and could prove to be a spiteful spoiler for Pat Quinn.  Only in Illinois.

(Fun Fact II: Obama's approval rating in his home state is a shimmering 45 percent, and 55 percent of Illinoisans favor repealing his signature healthcare law).

CA Gov: Brown (D) 50 - Whitman (R) 41

The worrying downward trend for Meg Whitman continues, as Jerry Brown seems to be pulling away.

CA Sen: Boxer (D) 48 - Fiorina (R) 44

Like we've seen in Ohio, as one statewide contest widens, the other isn't following suit.  Fiorina would, of course, prefer these numbers were a little tighter, but she's still very much within striking distance.

CT Sen: Blumenthal (D) 53 - McMahon (R) 42

Blumenthal looks like he's survived his colossal military record lie (whereas Mark Kirk's comparatively minor fib still dogs him in Illinois), and has pinned McMahon.


UPDATES
:

PPP now shows Rand Paul running away and hiding in Kentucky.  He leads Conway by 13.

Muhlenberg's daily tracker in Pennsylvania, which raised hackles last week when it showed Joe Sestak edging ahead of Pat Toomey, now shows Toomey regaining his footing.  He's up 8, and GOP Gubernatorial nominee Tom Corbett leads by 11.

Guy Benson

Guy Benson is Townhall.com's Senior Political Editor. Follow him on Twitter @guypbenson.

Author Photo credit: Jensen Sutta Photography