Last night I had the pleasure of appearing on TV on our local New England Cable News channel. For those of you who want to remind yourselves how handsome I am or how thick my Bahstahn accent is, the link can be found here.

At one point, host Jim Braude asked me how the Republicans can win the presidential election if things remain rotten in Iraq. I responded bluntly with words to the effect of, “We can’t.”

But it’s worse than that. Even if things improve in Iraq, it will probably be a non-story. There’s a good chance a successful pacification of Baghdad will be a classic dog-that-doesn’t-bark-scenario. Every car that blows up in Baghdad is legitimately news. The same cannot be said of every car in Baghdad that doesn’t explode.

Even if the press plays things straight, which is a very generous assumption, it’s tough to imagine how successful operations in Baghdad can make the same dramatic splash that our setbacks have. With all those factors in play, it’s unlikely that Iraq will shift in the public’s eye from a dreadful quagmire to an inspiring victory, even if that shift occurs in reality.

SO, HOW CAN REPUBLICAN POLITICIANS WIN with such a set of circumstances working against them? The obvious answer is that they can bash the Bush administration that with a ferocity that rivals what we see on the left. They could also go all paleo-con on us and offer a virile form of isolationism cum xenophobia that would thrill Lou Dobbs.

For obvious reasons, neither one of these tactics will be acceptable. We’re passing through an hour in which Republicans will have to put honor and duty above personal ambition. They will have to support the war effort, commit to victory, explain the correctness of their actions to their constituents, and politically let things fall out as they may.

I remember back on Election Day 2004 when the exit polls were leaked and it looked like John Kerry was going to be president. Kathryn Jean Lopez wrote something at that time that in effect said, “The Democrats can have ’08. Please let us have this one.”

K-Lo understood that the times were historic. They still are.  The Battle of Iraq must be won. We need our politicians to commit to victory. If that turns out to be a less than satisfying electoral strategy, so be it.

I get some letters asking me why Republicans seem so reluctant to fight this war with appropriate vigor. The answer is simple: Seeking political danger is not the default course of action for our nation’s office seekers. Actually, going to great lengths to avoid political risk is more par for the course.

But that just won’t cut it in this hour. Republicans rightly expect more from their representatives at this time. Their country needs more. Our politicians have a call to duty that they must answer.

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