To deter an attack, Iran must enhance the perception that it possesses the strength to attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz.
If you wish for peace, prepare for war. -- Latin adage
The world’s oil market seized in recent days amid heightened tensions between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil-rich Iran, sensitive to the prospect of global sanctions on its exports, hinted that it would attack American shipping in the strait.
Iran must also consider that military history is rife with examples of past behavior being used as a cover for offensive action. And with the USS George Washington (CVN-73) stationed in Yokosuka, Japan (about a week’s sail from the region), Iran must objectively consider the raw military capability at its doorstep.
Meanwhile, as we digest the Iowa Caucus chaos, a lot has happened outside of Iowa.
"Iran's navy says it has test-fired a medium-range surface-to-air missile in international waters near the strategic Strait of Hormuz."