The probability of recession in the U.S. suddenly surged to the 20% level from the 2% level recorded a month earlier.
The economy is limping along at an official 2 percent growth rate - and even that is overstated because it includes a 9.6 percent increase in deficit-financed government spending. We're already in the recession red zone, and the largest tax hike in American history looms January 1 if Congress fails to reach an agreement to cancel it. In this contest, the presidential election boils down to a remarkably simple choice: recession or real recovery.
The First Lady comments on the state of the union in a radio interview.
What's important to note is that in a relatively healthy and growing economy, there is very little reason for companies to act to cut their dividends.
I am very comfortable with pegging of the start of the recession in June and I expect more downward revisions in GDP and employment are on the way.
We've identified recession territory as being consistent with more than 10 U.S. companies per month acting to cut their dividend payments to investors.
While ultra-low rates may have made it cheap for qualified borrowers to borrow money, they're also punishing savers. Yields on most savings accounts and certificates of deposit are well below 1%, and the picture isn't much better overseas.
I specifically point out the opinion of James Beck "The decline year-over-year in these three core transportation indicators suggest a slowing in the economy if not a recession."
Ironically, two consecutive horrendous household surveys following months of weak regional Fed manufacturing surveys was enough for me to say on September 7, 2012 Yes, Virginia, It's a Recession.
100% without a doubt, Canada is in the midst of an immense housing bubble. The Canadian bubble outlasted bubbles in China and Australia. Because it did, I get taunts from Canadian readers all the time.
Yesterday I was asked if the services ISM changed my view about the US being in recession. I responded that I wanted to see today's job report first. Well I have seen it and the report is nothing short of a certified disaster.
Contrary to popular myth, recession does not mean two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Rather, two consecutive quarters of economic contraction is a sufficient, but not necessary condition.
Did you know the economy is going to fall back into another recession in the first half of next year? That’s the sad news coming from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), in a report released this week.
Biden admits that the recession is still ongoing for millions of unemployed.
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