Despite the farcical forecasts of government economists, Columbia journalism students, and assorted illiterate money scribblers of all varieties, this is not the best recession in the history of mankind, although history might dub it "The Greatest Recession."
Despite the farcical forecasts of government economists, Columbia journalism students, and assorted illiterate money scribblers of all varieties, this is not the best recession in the history of mankind. The best recession in the history of mankind would be a recession minus Barack Obama as president of United States.
Is a higher unemployment rate of 7.9 percent really good news? According to the Associated Press, it was an “upbeat” report.
We have it so good we have to make up things to frighten ourselves. Those adept at this art sell a lot of tickets, and get rich.
Is Barack Obama bluffing when he threatens to go over the fiscal cliff if Republicans refuse to agree to higher tax rates on high earners?
Today, just three weeks away from 2013, there is reason to believe that our President and his Administration – and perhaps his party, as a whole – is “embracing” recession, as though it is an appropriate means to a necessary end.
Through September 2012, we find the year-over-year growth rate of trade between the two nations is at near-zero levels of growth, indicating near recessionary conditions if we take this measure as an indication of the relative health of the economies of both nations.
Full time work is about to get scarcer. The reason? By hiring part-time workers who put in less than 30 hours per week, employers can avoid a mandate dictated by the new health reform law: either provide expensive health insurance or pay a fine equal to $2,000 per worker.
The probability of recession in the U.S. suddenly surged to the 20% level from the 2% level recorded a month earlier.
The economy is limping along at an official 2 percent growth rate - and even that is overstated because it includes a 9.6 percent increase in deficit-financed government spending. We're already in the recession red zone, and the largest tax hike in American history looms January 1 if Congress fails to reach an agreement to cancel it. In this contest, the presidential election boils down to a remarkably simple choice: recession or real recovery.
The First Lady comments on the state of the union in a radio interview.
What's important to note is that in a relatively healthy and growing economy, there is very little reason for companies to act to cut their dividends.
I am very comfortable with pegging of the start of the recession in June and I expect more downward revisions in GDP and employment are on the way.
We've identified recession territory as being consistent with more than 10 U.S. companies per month acting to cut their dividend payments to investors.
While ultra-low rates may have made it cheap for qualified borrowers to borrow money, they're also punishing savers. Yields on most savings accounts and certificates of deposit are well below 1%, and the picture isn't much better overseas.
I specifically point out the opinion of James Beck "The decline year-over-year in these three core transportation indicators suggest a slowing in the economy if not a recession."
Ironically, two consecutive horrendous household surveys following months of weak regional Fed manufacturing surveys was enough for me to say on September 7, 2012 Yes, Virginia, It's a Recession.
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