Deflation on Townhall

Dividend Futures: A Rocky Road Ahead Thu Nov 3

Political Calculations

What the S&P 500's dividend futures are signaling is that these quarters will be pretty lackluster in terms of overall economic growth. Given the lagging effect of the dividends, we currently expect the U.S. economy to begin slowing significantly in the first quarter of 2012, recover a bit, then fall back in the second half of the year. ... more
Forecast High Unemployment Through 2011 Sat Oct 22

Political Calculations

We're really not sure why so many people seem to be surprised that new, seasonally-adjusted, weekly jobless claim filings persist in clocking in at levels above 400,000, or that the adjusted values for the previous weeks tend to be revised upward. Provided the established trend remains in effect, the number of seasonally-adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims filed each week in the U.S. is perhaps the easiest economic statistic of all to forecast. ... more
Clinton-Obama Insider Cashes in on Econ Mess Fri Oct 21

Mike Shedlock

Roubinbi served as a senior economist for international affairs at the Council of Economic Advisers under the Clinton administration, and he spent a year working as lead adviser to Timothy Geithner, who was then undersecretary for international affairs. ... more
US gymnasts 1st in qualifying at worlds in Tokyo Sat Oct 8

AP News
Deflation: The Magic Trick by Kenesyian Clowns Thu Oct 6

Mike Shedlock

When the value of assets (loans) drop significantly, banks become capital impaired and cannot lend. This is happening now even though banks are hiding losses by not marking assets to market prices. ... more
Recession is Coming Mon Oct 3

Chris Poindexter

We already had a whiff of deflation in gold prices last week as commodities sank in harmony with sinking equities markets. That small of a sample can hardly be used to justify a bigger trend and I’m not trying to make last week out to more than it is, but signs pointing to recession are hard to ignore at this point. ... more
Let the Fed Bashing Continue Sun Oct 2

Mike Shedlock

The only thing that is true is the way in which Perry blasted the Fed is wrong, and I hope that costs Perry the nomination in favor of Chris Christie. ... more
Income Drops Second Month in a Row Sat Oct 1

Mike Shedlock

With real wages falling and jobs exceptionally hard to get (and keep), this drop in personal income will be accompanied with more unwillingness of banks to lend, and therefore must be considered highly deflationary. ... more
The Guess What's the Biggest Driver of U.S. Government Revenue? Thu Sep 22

Political Calculations

All in all, given the variation we observe from year to year, the formula we presented on the chart will be accurate to within 12% of the actual amount of money collected by the U.S. government in any given year if you only know the median household income, and often much less than that amount. That's pretty remarkable considering how much, and how often, U.S. income tax rates have changed since 1967. ... more
Obama's Fool's Mission Thu Sep 8

Mike Shedlock

Obama wants to create jobs via stimulus measures. It's a fool's mission. Stimulus plans that do not fix the structural problems are as productive as pissing in the wind. Then when the stimulus dies, which it is guaranteed to do, a mountain of debt remains. ... more
Global Recession, Right Here, Now Sat Sep 3

Mike Shedlock

It's time to stop debating whether or not the US or Europe is headed into recession. The facts show the entire global economy is in recession. ... more
Watch Out for Falling Prices; I Did Sat Aug 13

Mike Shedlock

Prior to the Great Financial Crisis I had a bet with "Heli-Ben", a staunch hyperinflationist who insisted we would hyperinflation before deflation. I won the bet but have not yet received my prize, a "crying towel" from "Heli-Ben". ... more
The Bear is Back Thu Aug 11

Mike Shedlock

The bear market is back says Australian economist Steve Keen. I agree. Moreover, the recent action, including the rally, offers sufficient evidence. The biggest percentage gains in history have all been in bear market rallies. ... more
Debt Outlook Stark Wed Jul 13

David Malpass

Congress and the President are down to the wire on cutting a debt limit deal. The President's goal has been to sound fiscally conservative, make clear the August 2 deadline, point to the need for a combination of spending cuts and tax increases, and encourage more discussions. ... more
A $600 Billion Failure Sat Jul 9

Bob Beauprez

QE2 was the $600 billion sequel to the first big run that the Fed had taken at jolting the economy back to life. When added to QE1, $2.3 trillion was pumped into the economy; a completely unprecedented effort. ... more
American Farmers Still Deliver Bumper Crop Fri Jul 1

Mike Shedlock

Inflation and deflation are monetary phenomena. As far as inflation goes, these price movements are noise. However, for those who think price is what matters, food prices are headed down. ... more
Ben Speaks, Markets Crumble, Again Thu Jun 23

John Ransom

It takes a rare confluence of circumstances to produce low growth and high inflation. But the Fed did it! That confluence is not an every day occurrence. Or even every business cycle occurrence. The Fed has to work really hard to get that kind of mojo going. ... more
O's Surge a Giant Sucking Sound Wed Jun 22

John Ransom

Despite surging troops into the landlocked, south-central Asian country, ala the Iraqi surge of 2007, we’ve seen no drop in violence and no sign that the responsible civilian government there will govern responsibly. ... more
U.S. and Pakistan: Afghan Strategies Wed Jun 22

George Friedman

There may be some in the U.S. military who believe that the United States might prevail in Afghanistan, but they are few in number. The champion of this view, Gen. David Petraeus, has been relieved of his command of forces in Afghanistan and promoted (or kicked upstairs) to become director of the CIA. ... more
The Deflation Situation Wed Jun 22

Bill Tatro

Watching oil recently decline from $114/barrel to $90/barrel (down 21%), is a positive. Lower wages, lower revenue, oil costs (first rising then falling), all add to the deflation case. ... more
Times Like This Call for Big Picture Thinking Wed Jun 22

Carrie Schwab Pomerantz

Before I outline some of your many options, let me add something important: The proverbial "big picture," as you put it, is not enough. To help you make really good investing decisions, you need to see the forest and the trees. ... more
Rosenberg Says 99 Percent Chance of Recession Tue Jun 14

Mike Shedlock

In a Bloomberg video David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates, says there is a 99 precent chance of another recession by 2012. Rosenberg also talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy. ... more
Size Matters for Central Bank Clowns Tue Jun 7

Mike Shedlock

Recall that Treasury Secretary Paulson's failed policy was based on the construct that size matters. The EU's silly attempt of talking down problems in Greece was based on the same principle. ... more
Hyperinflation Nonsense Thu May 26

Mike Shedlock

Unlike super-deflationist Robert Prechter, I expect gold to hold its value over the mid-term (another swoon is always possible) as the Fed fights massive deflationary forces of excess leverage, excess debt, boomer demographics, global wage arbitrage, cutbacks in state and local governments, and most importantly - consumer attitudes towards debt. ... more
U.S.-Pakistani Relations Beyond Bin Laden Sat May 14

George Friedman

Obfuscating on how intelligence was developed and on the specifics of how an operation was carried out is an essential part of covert operations. The precise process must be distorted to confuse opponents regarding how things actually played out. ... more