In response to:

Las Vegas Oddsmaker Explains Why He Predicts Romney Landslide

whui Wrote: Oct 14, 2012 11:26 AM
i completely disagree with this prediction, because i see this election as a repeat of the 2004 Kerry-Bush election. But this situation is reversed with Obama being Bush and Romney being Kerry. Bush lost the first debate and still ended up winning the election. Kerry did great in the first debate, and started to win more of the polls and got larger and larger crowds in his rallys. Kerry was leading in the polls but still lost the election. and i recalled that in 2004, most people were voting for Kerry because they hated Bush so much. I feel that most people are voting for Romney because they hate Obama.
jladd Wrote: Oct 22, 2012 11:21 AM
He makes the comparison between this election and Carter/Reagan.. I think that's important, because the climate is very similar between the two, and Obama is a lot like Carter. In other words, there are more similarities between Carter/Reagan and this election than between this election and Bush/Kerry.
In any case, I have seen enough elections to know that the polls give points to Dem candidates consistently. Yes, they DO oversample dems..they always have.. So, when you see Romney at 52% and Obama at 45%, and then you adjust for the consistent Dem oversampling, what do you get?
That's the funny thing, in my 31 years on this planet, I have noticed that Dems still have not figured out that the polls are skewed towards them.
Texas Chris Wrote: Oct 15, 2012 9:54 AM
There was no groundswell of support for any one side in 2004. It was evenly split. Not like today, where one side is clearly under attack, and the other side is clearly responding with a majority of numbers.
On May 30th, I made a prediction that shocked the readers of TownHall. I predicted a Romney landslide- with Obama leading in every poll.

I did not make that prediction as a political columnist, or as the former Libertarian Presidential contender, or the 2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee. I relied on my career as a Las Vegas oddsmaker. Long before I got into politics, I started out as the Network Oddsmaker and NFL Analyst for CNBC (then known as Financial News Network). I've made my living for the past 27 years predicting the winners of sporting events, like the Super...