In response to:

The Reliability of Polls - and Polling Experts

Ward3 Wrote: Oct 29, 2012 11:05 PM
It's not necessarily Silver's model that is the problem, it's that the polls he is relying on are terribly flawed this year. Even as it becomes obvious that the Partisan Splits of this election will be nowhere near what they were in the D +7 of 2008. There are still some of these polls using even larger D/R splits & thus their top line numbers show it much closer than reality will bear out on election day. Here in Colorado, they release the early voting totals by party. Almost 25% of Colorado votes early and with a week to go the current early vote split is 39-36, in favor of Republicans, an R+3. In 2008, the split was 40-33 in favor of Democrats. That is a 10 point swing in a model that is relying on 2008 Partisan Splits in their polls.
There has been just about one constant up for discussion in an electoral season filled with tumultuous polling: Nate Silver.

Nate Silver is the statistician and poll-watching guru who rose to prominence in 2008 by developing a poll aggregation model that correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in that year's presidential contest. He has since been hired by the New York Times and gained more prominence with his up-to-the-minute analysis on new polls and the state of the presidential race.

Conservatives have attacked Silver relentlessly for his model that predicts that President Obama with a 70%+ chance to win...