I grew up in the Buffalo area, went to college in the Southern Tier, and my kids were born in the Finger Lakes region. I moved out of NY a few years ago now but my family are all still there. What I can say is that the old stereotypes are true. NYC and Long Island detemine everything in NY. A decent Republican candidate could win everything north of Westchester County but it just doesn't end up being enough to make up for the City and LI. Just my take...but unless they are carved out of NY, what you see now is what you're going to get.