I believe this already happened. The party was split between conservatives, establishment and Ron Paulers. I believe it was the Ron Paulers and not the conservatives that didn't vote in the last election.
A split vote will never take leadership away from Democrats. Two elections lost and we still can't come together enough in a center right country to defeat the liberal view. Is that what individualism gets us? So dedicated to our ideals we will let the other side walk away with the win and our country?