The Fed isn't speculating that production will result from an infusion of cash, it's simply counterfeiting. They have the power to CREATE money out of thin air. They simply credit accounts with electronic balances.
This devalues every dollar everyone has earned and held. It steals from all. It allows the government to get hold of new, devalued dollars that help pay the pensions. But all the load, as you note, gets put back onto the taxpayer. It's the company store routine.