Two problems with this analysis, IMO:
1) the 'five or six times in the last 30 years' that this kind of malarkey worked, they weren't dealing with Obama, who has been unequivocal in not cutting spending.
2) 'For now, it looks like we're going to get a relatively clean debt ceiling hike, but only a temporary one.' Yep, 'temporary' - for 3 months. Then we'll have ourselves another 'clean debt ceiling hike' for another three months. And then another. And another. And another.
Lather, rinse, repeat: the new Congressional mantra.