All this analysis doesn't look at issues. It doesn't look at Obama machine which has been formulated since 2008 to win swing states. The democrats start over building a new messiah and after 8 years of Obama I think he will have Bush's popularity or I think worse. At the midway mark of 2004 Bush was still in an afterglow of handling 9/11. Obama rode the first black presidency to get a pass on failure. Why would the public eelct another Democrat in his wake? To prove what? To help Obama's legacy how? It will be close but losing 3% of the vote is very possible after 8 years of failure. Some new democrat (Hilliary) isn't going to have an easy time of "Do you want more of this?"