You're over thinking it.
It's not that complicated: Add up number of people: On welfare+ those who are employed by the government+ those who sell stuff to the government+those who need government to OK their business permits+those who hope to get free stuff AND all their families. It's a huge number.
We are past the tipping point. From here on out to the unavoidable collapse, the guy that even hints at reducing government will always loose.
Pray for the USA.