I have to admit, RWM, I have heard a lot of blathery nonsense about Nate Silver hatred from the Right. You're among the first to show actual examples of his predicting things incorrectly, as a substantive rebuttal. Impressive. As long as you recognize that he got all 50 states correct, all but two Senate races, and will be correct within 1 point of the popular vote totals, thus making his model clearly more accurate than just lucky, we've got something. BTW, I think the entire media was judging his model, so he kinda was "putting up his money" (his career) on those stats, and he IS going to make a killing off of that "wager."