But this was what was exactly predicted by the stats and probabilities. Nate Silver crunched all of the polling data, infused with demographic and historical data and likely voter models, etc, and he called all 50 states correctly. You're assuming that the swing states were each exactly tied, and if there were 10 exactly tied states, the odds would have been 1023 to 1 that Obama would win all of them. But he didn't win all of them, he lost North Carolina. And they weren't exact ties, he had a small but steady lead in Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia. He had a fairly large lead in Pennsylvania. The only real "tossup states" New Hampshire and Colorado, each of which Obama had won in 2008, and Florida, which really was a tie.