Doug3370 Wrote:
Nov 07, 2012 10:39 AM
Face it: Nate Silver took into account the facts. With all the polls out there, and with some good judgment, there's enough information to put together a really fine model. Politics is, in fact, as easily number-crunched as baseball. Very close races will remain unpredictable, but predicting the odds has become feasible. When Silver writes that Obama's chances are 86.3 percent, he's not saying that he knows it to that precision. He's saying that as a betting man, he'll take a bet at those odds. He's been vindicated. While we're at it, the whole idea of a model has also been vindicated.