yesth Wrote:
Nov 07, 2012 12:41 AM
"Now, bear in mind that Jordan's critique centered on what Jordan (a numbers-cruncher himself) argues is Silver's over-reliance on small-state polls." this argument is insanely stupid. 1) previous state poll aggregates, for prior elections, have been shown to be extremely accurate. Those state polls contains the same ones that Jordan complained to be too small in terms of sample. 2) small sample size doesnt matter if you have multiple polls. they have bigger random errors, but those cancel out when you aggregate the polls. 3) small sample -> larger margins of error. That margin of error information is already added into the model with the poll results. that means silver already weighted polls according to their sizes.