If the exit polls only look "kinda bad," I'd say that's a good sign. As I said -- and as others far smarter than me have said -- the exit polls will look awful. Not only was 2004 a Kerry blowout; 2008 was a 20-point Obama win, which the networks more or less randomly "adjusted" to 8. In 2010 the exit polls looked terrible at first, and when we won the House the response of many conservatives was, "How could I have been so dumb? The exit polls have looked terrible before, and they fooled me before." And, of course, in the WI recall this year, the exit polls initially indicated a dead heat.