I generally give the Dems a 3% "cheating edge." You know they are going to play games, and the Dem. Sec'ty's of State dutifully assist in the heist. a 1% edge to a REpublican is really a 4% edge. I think Romney will get a 4% edge, nationwide, in the popular count, which is really a 7% edge.
Americans have not (yet) reached the tipping point of 51% WWW's (Welfare Wastrel Wannabes). I'm confident that Americans are rising up to save our country today.