The election of 1860 did not move the southern states to violent revolt. It moved seven of them to peaceful separation. One of those seven eventually fired on a tax house which resulted in no loss of life. That was the excuse used by Lincoln to start a violent invasion of those states. That planned violent invasion moved four other southern states to separation to stand with their sister states to resist that violent invasion.
I hope you are right that when Obama loses he will quietly accept defeat and peacefully turn over power. I fear he may not be willing to do so. He is, after all, a dictator.