We still see what the outcome will be.
But your argument, and defense of your position is very weak.
First, Silver is a top notch baseball statician. But his trail on political prediction is short. One election cycle in 2008. While I'll agree that he was right on the money on how many states would go, with the exception of one state. That is only one election, not many. Most knew quite sometime that Obama had it in the bag. The question was only how much.
But the main question that I have, and so do many knowledgeable people in the field. Is one simple question. Did Obama's campaign feed him inside polling just before his prediction? There is some talk, from inside the Obama campaign from 2008, that this was the case.