HornIt Wrote:
Nov 03, 2012 1:49 AM
I wish I could share Hugh's unbridled optimism. It is no doubt good to see Barone calling it big for Romney, but I just don't know if I believe it. Romney appears to have actually lost momentum according to the Rasmussen poll, which has gone from a 5 point Romney lead to dead even now. None of the RCP average seems to be moving Romney's direction. In fact, most seem to be going slightly the other way. The probability models seem to just be getting stronger for Obama and the prediction markets have not really budged off favoring Obama at around a 2 to 1 clip. There is no doubt some things that look promising and there is stuff that "feels" good, but I've been tricked by that before only to be disappointed by the cold, hard reality.