about the ubiquitous polling indicators--
There are surely vagaries of polling, especially in an age of cell phones...we will not answer land line calls we do not recognize.
Also, I am CERTAIN that O's supposed "personal popularity" or "job approval" is overestimated. When pollsters ask if people approve of, or like, Obama, many say, "Oh yeah, sure..."
But REALLY they fear being seen as "racist" if they express their TRUE feelings.
It might prove to be an update/new iteration of what they called "the Bradley Effect."