Bingo. Only one poll matters. The rest is fluff. Either way, I have already called Romney by a landslide. Using the Real Clear Politics map, I took the results from 2008 and made changes to states that are either going for Romney in the RCP average or where Obama dropped 7 % or more from his 2008 winnings to the RCP average. I figured a 7 % drop is pretty huge. Based on my criteria, the following states changed from blue to red: Oregon Nevada Colorado Iowa Wisconsin Michigan New Hampshire Connecticut Virginia North Carolina Florida That said, Romney wins 302 to 236 in electoral votes.