Rove is spending hundreds of millions to win the election. So anything he is saying is unreliable, this is propaganda in a form the United States has never seen before, a hybrid of "media" and partisan political campaign spending.
Rove never answered allegations of vote fraud in Ohio 2004 or the subpoena served him in 2008, and yet he is currently the director of the country's biggest SuperPAC. Rove is not a journalist or commentator, he is trying to buy this election and part of that is suckering audiences.
If you want to read from a real pollster, Nate Silver was the most accurate in 2008. So what is his operation saying? http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/oct-31-obamas-electoral-college-firewall-holding-in-polls/