The turnout in 2008, which Demos are unlikely to exceed, was 44D/37R/18I; plug in those numbers to the poll data - https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyoct12_1.pdf and Romney is ahead by half a point; the turnout in 2010 was 40D/37R/23I; when you plug in those numbers Romney is ahead by almost 4%. (he wins 15% of D, 81% of R and 48% of I, Bam-bam is 79,12,32) The turnout this year is likely to be somewhere in between '08 and '10, say 42D/38R/20I.