David1763 Wrote:
Oct 27, 2012 10:25 AM
Unspoken of is the unreality of the polling methodology. I would gladly play Tiger Woods if he would spot me 20 strokes. The Gallop Poll in Virginia spots Obama 5 strokes by assuming democratic turn out to be 5 percentage points higher than republican turn out. Is this real? In 2008 democratic turn out was 9 percentage points higher than republicans. In 2010 democratic turn out was 0 (zero) percentage points higher than republicans. So what will the turn out be this year - like 2008 or 2010 or somewhere in between? Gallop showed republican turnout to likely be 3 percentage points higher than democratic based on voter intensity and currently show Romney up by 2 while still spotting Obama 5 strokes. Do the math that is a 10% lead for Romney.