Black vote was 2% over normal and this time there is an effort by black pastors to get their congregations to not vote for Obama due to gay marriage and unrestricted abortion. At most it drops 2% back to normal. - 2 % Obama
Religious vote was 5% over normal for Obama. At the very least it drops back to normal. - 5% Obama
This brings his total from 52% down to 45%.
Then there are two grops we can't quantify.
#1 under 30 vote was way above normal and now 50% of them have 100k in student debt an no job.Youth vote drops big time.
#2 Is the vote by people who simply wanted something to say as to why thy aren't racist. They used to say "I have black friends"and now they can say "I voted for Obama".