He makes the comparison between this election and Carter/Reagan.. I think that's important, because the climate is very similar between the two, and Obama is a lot like Carter. In other words, there are more similarities between Carter/Reagan and this election than between this election and Bush/Kerry.
In any case, I have seen enough elections to know that the polls give points to Dem candidates consistently. Yes, they DO oversample dems..they always have.. So, when you see Romney at 52% and Obama at 45%, and then you adjust for the consistent Dem oversampling, what do you get?
That's the funny thing, in my 31 years on this planet, I have noticed that Dems still have not figured out that the polls are skewed towards them.