Yeah, but you really need to look at the polls state by state with an eye on 270 electoral college votes.
Right now Romney needs either Ohio or Pennsylvania, assuming he has NC, Virginia and Colorado (and Florida, which he should have pretty easy now).
I'd play the coal card; let Obama hammer him with a stupid lie about a non-compliant coal plant. Romney was never anti-coal.
Obama is anti-coal and anti-business. Ohio is fair game and Pennsylvania is not out of the question for Romney.
But to look at any national poll and say 'if x and y and z, then Romney will win' is just too simplistic. He also needs some support on calling out Democrat lies; Obamacare abortion funding violates 1st amend, lied about Bengazi, Iran A-bome etc