I don't know if Mish lost his bet or he was conned out of it.
The unemployment rate is based on a sample of 60,000 people,
You only have to employ 180 people to generate a 0.3% drop in the unemployment rate. If I were a machine politician from Chicago and I wanted to drop the "official"unemployment rate below 8%, I would ask the president to find out who was in the survey and offer 180 of them part time jobs passing out political leaflets for the Obama campaign. Any part time job for any amount of money counts as "employment". $100 each would do. $18,000 total.
Most of the highly unusual quadrupling of monthly "employment" gain was "part time".
Not that Chicago politicians would resort to that. Just sayin' that it's possible.