That still does not account for the number of people who were on unemployment but have dropped off the rolls and have stopped looking for work. Your numbers do not account for the sudden drop in the employment rate over a months time.
The vote will not come from who says what or what is reported in the poll or the job numbers.
The vote against Obama will come from the people who must face the reality everyday of not having a job, and who have to face the rising prices of gas and food.
Obama will be held responsible.