Michael, right or wrong, a lot of people who are aware of every point you make herein are nevertheless mortally afraid of something you didn't mention. Voter fraud, massive voter fraud. Maybe we are all over-hyping the potential harm this menace could do. But consider that much of the pessimism of conservatives stems from this fear. Don't underestimate it as a reason people think Obama will pull this election out of his bag of tricks. Everything else seems to go his way....to the point that some of us cannot even picture what an Obama loss might look like. All the favorable stats in the world won't raise people's confidence when they believe voter fraud could make a difference of at least several percentage points.