Obama will lose in November. Just about every group in his base is discouraged and disenchanted. They will not go out to vote in drives as they did in 2008. Young people and college students, union members, college professors, teachers, women, blacks - yes, even blacks-, Hispanics, their voting numbers will be well below that of 2008. In contrast, Republicans are energized. The selection of Paul Ryan as vice-presidential candidate has energized them even more. Romney will win.