hmm - got cut off - continuing from above:
I have little hope for #1 or #2. #3 requires a rethinking of just what our military missions should be for the next 10-20 years. Exactly WHAT do we want our military to be able to do on a moment's notice? And the mission DOES need to be reworked every 10 years or so, due to changing conditions.
Only once you clarify what you expect from the military can you put together a rational spending plan.
Disclosure - my current thinking about what the mission should be is this - one of short, quick retaliation to those who upset us - aka the Rubble Theory of defense. For example, in Afg. or Iraq, I would have preferred a quick 2-3 month campaign - create lots of rubble, topple regimes, etc.