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Analysis: Four More Years

Uber Dave Wrote: Nov 07, 2012 1:42 PM
Not if we see you first...
HoovervilleFollies Wrote: Nov 07, 2012 2:10 PM
Uber Dave BEFORE THE ELECTION: "Owebambi's already lame... // ...He'll just be a duck."

When a prediction proves to be seriously out of synch with reality, a wise person reexamines the worldview that prompted the prediction.

A few stray thoughts and observations in the aftermath of the 2012 election -- on substance, process, and tactics:

(1) The polls were broadly right, both at the state and national levels -- a dichotomy that I believed to be unlikely in the extreme as recently as yesterday morning.  The electorate ended up being D+6, nearly on par with 2008, and six points better than the 2010 midterms.  I was wrong about this, as were a good number of other observers.  The 2012 party ID figures from Gallup and Rasmussen upon which my assumptions were based were...

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