In response to:

Mittmentum Builds

Toomuchsense Wrote: Nov 04, 2012 1:15 AM
We still see what the outcome will be. But your argument, and defense of your position is very weak. First, Silver is a top notch baseball statician. But his trail on political prediction is short. One election cycle in 2008. While I'll agree that he was right on the money on how many states would go, with the exception of one state. That is only one election, not many. Most knew quite sometime that Obama had it in the bag. The question was only how much. But the main question that I have, and so do many knowledgeable people in the field. Is one simple question. Did Obama's campaign feed him inside polling just before his prediction? There is some talk, from inside the Obama campaign from 2008, that this was the case.
Bruce2397 Wrote: Nov 04, 2012 4:05 PM
Duh, dufus, Nate Silver is not a sports reporter.....jeez, I feel like I'm talking to a bratty kid. He's a statistician. He developed and sold a statistics program that you can use to predict the performance of baseball players. In 2008 he predicted the popular vote winner (in McCain vs. Obama) in 49 out of 50 states (missing only Indiana, which he called for McCain but which went to Obama) and was correct in all 35 Senate races.

His numbers are so accurate that it's no wonder you've never heard of him...
Srusino Wrote: Nov 04, 2012 3:48 PM
Thank you, you inadvertently explained why I had never heard of Nate Silverman. He is a sports reporter!
Bruce2397 Wrote: Nov 04, 2012 1:27 PM
No one believes that "those on the same team as Obama" made any statements indicated there was any collusion between people with polling data and Nate Silver. There is no "interesting question"--there are wild accusations with no basis in truth or fact, and no rational reason why anyone would benefit from sharing any data of that sort. Why, on Fox News we're constantly told how skewed and unreliable any Democratic polling is---so why would Nate Silver, who (unlike Fox News) depends on his reputation for being accurate and reliable, have any interest in data that Fox knows to be unreliable? Interesting question...
Toomuchsense Wrote: Nov 04, 2012 1:21 PM
Secong point again Bruce. One successful season in sports, at the betting table. Or even predicting the outcome in one race, make one an expert. Silver could be an expert. But it takes more than one successful race prediction. We will all see how Silver does with his latest prediction, and those in the coming years. Maybe he is brillant. Too early at this time to state this as fact.

Bruce, just keep whistling past the grave yard. You'll be safe.
Toomuchsense Wrote: Nov 04, 2012 1:16 PM
Bruce you sure are dense. One of my two points was dealing with Silver's predicition, and how possibly he manage to be almost spot on to what actually occurred. So let me explain it to you dear child, Bruce. If someone gives me the results of their polling, and I report it. Does that make be brillant? No. So if Silver, was given insider information in 2008 on the polling results just before the election. Does he get the credit? No he does not. But I did not state that what has been reported by reliable sources, is gospel. I don't personally know. Neither do you. But why would those on the same team as Obama, make statements indicating that there was some collusions between those with polling data and Silver? Interesting question.
Bruce2397 Wrote: Nov 04, 2012 7:55 AM
NotEnoughSense---Let's ask the real question---is it likely that Obama's campaign would have given a journalist "inside" polling? What would be the point? He was winning by a lot at that point, and Silver was reporting it. So no reason to do that. Would it make you feel better to claim that Obama's campaign had done that? Sure. Is it all about feelings, and not facts, with you guys? Absolutely.

I think we have our answer...

Michael Barone is America’s “one man decision desk,” with credibility on elections far beyond that of anyone else working the field in America today.

Which is why Michael’s bold Washington Examiner column from yesterday cut through all the spin from Chicago and all the blather from MSNBC, and struck President Obama supporters in their gut.

Barone, having surveyed all the polling data from every source and all the early voting numbers from all the states, sees Mitt Romney rolling up 315 Electoral College votes, including the states of Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin –and Pennsylvania!

Other evidence is...